IMPACTS OF RAINFALL, TEMPERATURE AND RECENT EL NIÑOS ON FISHERIES AND AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS IN THE WEST COAST OF SABAH [2000 – 2010]

ABSTRACT. The impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon on rainfall and temperature as well as the relationships between rainfall, temperature and ENSO phenomenon on fish landings and production of palm oil Fresh Fruit Bunch (FFB) along the West Coast of Sabah during the last 10 years have been examined. Rainfall, temperature, Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values, fish landings and production of FFB from available local departments have been studied and analyzed for the past 10 years. On the whole, there is significant positive correlation between rainfall and temperature on fish landings. The correlation coefficient between rainfall and fish landings is +0.74 with fish landings leading by 2 months. Also, fish landings and temperature are directly correlated with correlation coefficient of +0.83 with no time lag. However, a negative correlation between SOI values on fish landings is observed whereby 1 month before fish landings increase, the SOI values become low or negative. Analysis of production of palm oil on the same meteorological parameters show that there is significant positive correlation between rainfall on production of FFB, monthly temperature on production of FFB and SOI values on production of FFB for the 6-year study period. When rainfall is considered, the production of FFB is correlated with rainfall at +0.83 with rainfall leading by 3 months. The correlation coefficients between temperature and production of FFB is +0.87 with temperature leading by 4 months. Also, when SOI values are considered, production of FFB leads SOI by 3 months with the correlation coefficient of +0.62. Fish landings along the West Coast of Sabah are enhanced during El Niño periods while production of palm oil FFB is favoured during La Niña periods although floods are not desirable. By understanding the ENSO phenomenon and the subsequent changes in rainfall and temperature, preparations are most needed in order to sustain and promote the fisheries and agricultural products for sustainable development in the economy of Sabah.


KEYWORDS.
ENSO, fish landings, FFB, rainfall, temperature

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