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CLIMATE CHANGE SIMULATIONS IN TERMS OF SOLAR RADIATION AND CLOUD FRACTION BASED ON PRECIS OVER MALAYSIA REGION

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Steven S.K. Kong*, Justin Sentian

Climate Change Research Group,
School of Science and Technology,
University Malaysia Sabah, Jalan UMS, 88400, Kota Kinabalu, Sabah, Malaysia.
Email: kongksk@gmail.com

ABSTRACT.Climate change is a significant change of weather pattern over a long period of time. Malaysia can be vulnerable to such impact, since economics of this region are strongly relies on agriculture and natural sources. This paper simulated the solar radiation and total cloud fraction for Malaysia by the end of 21st century based on the A2 and the B2 scenarios by utilizing the latest generation of the Hadley Centre regional climate modeling system, PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies). Relative to the baseline scenario, the average increase in solar radiation was by 5 – 12Wm^(-2) under the A2 scenario and by 3 – 10Wm^(-2) under the B2 scenario. The changes were significant at 95% confidence level across most of the land area. The average total fraction over Malaysia was projected to reduce by 0.14 to 0.032 under the A2 scenario and 0.11 to 0.0057 under the B2 scenario compared to the baseline scenario. Significant changes were observed over whole domain of investigation during DJF (December-January-February) under both scenarios. Study results suggest that a significant change in climate variability may potentially increase the climate-related risks such as air quality impact and vulnerability in the region.

KEYWORDS. Climate Changes, Cloud Fraction, Malaysia, PRECIS, Solar Radiation

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